The final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference will feature the results of the CPAC straw poll as well as the conclusion of the week long Maine Republican caucuses.
The Maine caucuses will likely come down to a two man race between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Texas congressman Ron Paul.
Maine caucus voters
There has been no reliable polling of voters in Maine to gauge who exactly they are favoring as the caucuses wind down Saturday, however recent events along the Republican primary trail point to a showdown between Mr. Paul and Mr. Romney.
During the week leading up to the Florida Republican primary election, Mr. Paul made several campaign appearances in Maine. In an appearance on CNN that week, he called the interest from voters there “phenomenal.”
Although Mr. Romney enjoys regional popularity in New England as evidenced by his wide margin of victory in New Hampshire, Mr. Paul’s libertarian leaning campaign rhetoric resonates well with voters in New England states.
The Texas congressman finished in second place in New Hampshire, one of only two second place finishes thus far for him in the race.
Additionally, Mr. Paul received two endorsements from some prominent Maine Republicans in January.
Maine State Rep. Aaron Libby endorsed Mr. Paul during a January town hall event in Alfred that drew 1,000 supporters, calling himself a “Ron Paul Republican.”
Linda Loraine Bean, heiress to the Maine based L.L. Bean company and a prominent Republican donor, endorsed Mr. Paul in late January as well.
Mr. Paul and Mr. Romney will make campaign appearances in Maine on Saturday, the final day of the week long Maine Republican caucuses.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will not be appearing in Maine, and have not made attempts to court voters there in recent weeks either.
CPAC Straw poll
Straw polls have not proven to have much significance early on in the Republican primary race, evidenced by Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann’s victory in the Iowa Ames straw poll back in August.
Ms. Bachmann’s campaign eventually imploded and she dropped out of the race after finishing in sixth place in the Iowa caucuses.
However the results of Saturday’s CPAC straw poll will definitely have an impact. It won’t be the opinion of voters from a single state, this straw poll will feature the opinion of the leading Republican elected officials, activists, donors and the like from across the nation.
Three of the remaining candidates, Mr. Santorum, Mr. Romney, and Mr. Gingrich, gave speeches at the CPAC event Friday.
Mr. Paul skipped attending the CPAC event, choosing instead to send young supporters of his campaign there instead. The Texas lawmaker won the 2011 CPAC straw poll. That was mainly the result of a combination mild interest from high profile conservatives during a non election year and a large presence of Ron Paul supporters at the 2011 CPAC.
Although Mr. Paul’s supporters had a large presence at the 2012 CPAC event, his choice to skip the event will turn the CPAC straw poll into a three man showdown between his rival candidates.
According to a Public Polling Policy poll released Saturday, Mr. Santorum is surging nationally. The poll featured the first time in the primary race that he finished in first place of a nationwide survey of Republican voters.
The former senator certainly has the momentum to win the CPAC straw poll after three primary victories in Minnesota, Colorado and Missouri this week.
The results of the CPAC poll will show whether or not the leading conservative figures see Mr. Santorum as the true conservative alternative to President Barack Obama in the fall.
A victory by Mr. Romney in the CPAC straw poll would finally allow him to shake the label of being a “Massachusetts moderate,” as Mr. Gingrich calls him.
If Mr. Gingrich wins the poll, the victory would revitalize his declining campaign after he suffered five straight primary losses following a huge victory in South Carolina.
The combination of the CPAC straw poll results and the Maine caucuses will certainly have major implications for all four remaining candidates heading into a two week break from voting prior to the upcoming elections in Arizona and Michigan on February 28th.
