According to MSNBC political commentator Pat Buchanan, Texas congressman Ron Paul will “likely” win the Iowa caucuses next week, The Daily Caller reports.
Mr. Buchanan, a former politician himself who ran as a presidential candidate in the 1996 and 2000 elections, believes that if Mr. Paul does pull off a victory next week that it will ultimately lead to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney winning the Republican nomination in 2012.
“If Ron Paul wins Iowa, Romney wins Iowa. Romney should still win New Hampshire,” Mr. Buchanan said Tuesday.
Mr. Paul holds the majority of support in the most recent polls of voters in Iowa, and the controversy surrounding a series of racist newsletters that ran under his name in the 1980s and 90s does not appear to be effecting his popularity in the Hawkeye state.
The Texas congressman has ran one of the strongest on the ground campaigns in Iowa, his Republican rivals have even commented on how they see Paul supporters at many of their own campaign stops.
Mr. Buchanan believes a Paul victory in Iowa next week would essentially destroy any shot at securing the nomination for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich too.
Mr. Gingrich emerged as the front runner in late November, but his popularity has greatly declined after a number of ads and criticism from his GOP rival candidates regarding his past relationship with mortgage giant Freddie Mac and a 2009 climate change ad that he appeared in alongside House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA.).
“I’ll say this: if Newt comes in third, his surge is done,” Mr. Buchanan said Tuesday.
“Newt, who was the candidate, as of a month ago, who could probably have taken three out of the first four contests, the strongest candidate as of a month ago against Romney, will really be set back dramatically if he comes in third,” the former Republican presidential candidate said.
Mr. Buchanan credited Mr. Gingrich’s decline to the negative ads currently being run against him in Iowa. Super PACs that support Texas Governor Rick Perry have recently released negative ads against Mr. Gingrich, and Super PACs that support Mr. Romney have been running negative ads against the former House speaker for weeks.
Mr. Gingrich himself, who two weeks ago pledged to run a “positive” campaign, reacted to the negative criticism Tuesday in an appearance on CNN. He slammed Mr. Paul for the controversial newsletters and claimed he would never vote for him if he were to win the Republican nomination.
“I think Ron Paul’s views are totally outside the mainstream of virtually every decent American,” Mr. Gingrich said Tuesday.
“He’s not going to get the nomination. It won’t happen,” the former House speaker added.
