The latest poll of likely Florida Republican primary voters finds Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney not only leading rival Newt Gingrich, but also now leading President Barack Obama in the Sunshine state.
The Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll released Sunday shows Mr. Romney leading Mr. Gingrich by 11 percentage points, and he leads the president by 4 percentage points. The former Massachusetts governor is the only candidate that finished the poll with more votes than the president.
Mr. Romney finished the poll garnering 42 percent, trailed by Mr. Gingrich at 31 percent. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum finished the poll in a distant third place at 14 percent, and Texas congressman Ron Paul finished last at 6 percent.
Mr. Paul has not been campaigning in Florida, with the exception of attending the two nationally televised presidential candidate debates this week. The Texas lawmaker has made several stops in Maine this week, his campaign wants to focus on states with upcoming caucuses where they have a better chance of winning more delegates.
Mr. Santorum has also been absent at times from the campaign trail in Florida this week, on Saturday he announced he would be canceling a Sunday morning appearance at a church in Miami.
According to the poll results, Mr. Romney holds his largest lead in Tampa Bay where he beat Mr. Gingrich by 16 percentage points.
“Romney’s margin is largely driven by Republican women, and he also has a very strong base of support among the Hispanic community,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.
The Hispanic support for Mr. Romney is interesting considering the criticism he has received from Mr. Gingrich for his position regarding the Dream Act. During the debate in Tampa Bay Monday night, Mr. Romney reiterated his view of vetoing the Dream Act and implementing a policy of “self-deportation” where social and domestic conditions would force illegal immigrants to leave the U.S. because of a lack of work opportunities.
The poll also proposed hypothetical head to head match ups between the president and Mr. Gingrich. Mr. Obama finished the poll with 50 percent, compared to 41 percent for the former House speaker. Against Mr. Santorum, the president finished with 50 percent compared to 39 percent for the former Pennsylvania senator.
Although Mr. Gingrich has characterized Mr. Romney as a “Massachusetts moderate,” the poll found that more conservative voters support the Bain Capital co-founder in Florida. Voters that identified themselves as Republicans have a 55 percent favorable impression of Mr. Romney, compared to a 41 percent favorable impression of Mr. Gingrich according to the poll.
The Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll was conducted among 800 registered voters statewide in Florida between January 24th and January 26th with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
It appears Mr. Romney is headed for a convincing victory on Tuesday, unless any last minute surprises occur that help Mr. Gingrich pull off an upset.
