The Las Vegas Review Journal poll of voters in Nevada released Thursday shows Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney as the projected winner in the Nevada caucuses on Saturday.
The poll was conducted by the Journal and 8News Now, and shows that 45 percent of the Nevada Republican voters who plan to caucus on Saturday are voting for Mr. Romney. The former Massachusetts governor is trailed by rival Newt Gingrich, who finished the poll with 25 percent of the votes.
Mr. Romney’s support comes mostly from Mormon voters in Nevada, as the poll found that 85.5 percent of Mormon voters plan to vote for the Bain Capital co-founder. In the 2008 Nevada Republican caucuses, Mr. Romney won by a landslide, garnering 50 percent of the votes to defeat former candidate John McCain and Texas congressman Ron Paul by more than 30 percentage points.
Mr. Paul has also been making an effort to court Mormon voters in Nevada, however he finished the poll in fourth place behind former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. Mr. Santorum finished the poll with 11 percent of the votes, trailed by Mr. Paul at 9 percent.
Mr. Paul was hoping for a top tier finish in Nevada, as he skipped campaigning in Florida last week to focus on states with upcoming caucuses, where he would have a better chance of winning more delegates.
There a total of 25 delegates up for grabs in the Nevada Republican caucuses on Saturday. Unlike the winner take all election in the Florida primary, they will be distributed proportionally.
Although Mr. Romney is supported by the majority of Mormon voters, that is not the only religous group that is backing him in Nevada, as the majority of Christian, Protestant and Catholic voters also selected him in the poll.
“If Romney gets 50 percent, it means conservatives are finally coalescing around him,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “Romney has to expand beyond the establishment to demonstrate he’s got momentum and the party behind him.”
The poll shows that Mr. Gingrich continues to draw the majority of his support from Tea Party Republicans, as the majority of voters who identified themselves as Tea Party supporters voted for the former House speaker.
Mr. Romney has two primary wins, and now appears headed for his first caucus victory on Saturday.
After losing the Florida Republican primary election, Mr. Gingrich made it clear to the media and his rival candidates that he plans on staying in the primary race through August. Mr. Paul made similar comments recently, and Mr. Santorum also stated recently that he believes he is the best conservative alternative to Mr. Romney.
The Journal poll projecting Mr. Romney as the winner comes two days prior to the Nevada Republican caucuses on Saturday. The Nevada caucuses kicks off a week full of primary and caucus voting, as Colorado and Minnesota hold their caucus voting on Tuesday, the same day as the Missouri Republican primary election. Maine is also holding its caucuses for the week of February 4th-11th.
The Journal poll was conducted between January 27th and January 31st among 426 Republican voters in Nevada with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.75 percentage points.
