A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll released Thursday found that Democratic candidate Elizabeth Warren leads Sen. Scott Brown (R-Ma.) for the 2012 Massachusetts Senate race.
Ms. Warren, a Harvard Law School professor, announced her bid for the seat earlier this year. Democrats see the seat as a potential area where they can capture support from Republicans.
The poll results showed support for Mr. Brown falling as voters are leaning more towards Democrats. The poll finds just a 37 percent job approval rating for the Massachusetts Republican. In contrast, Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick received a 47 percent job approval rating, and 49 percent of voters approved of the job President Barack Obama is doing.
“These numbers could mean trouble for Scott Brown,” Brian Schaffner, a UMass political scientist said of the results.
“The race is a dead heat and his support is well under 50 percent, which usually means difficulty for an incumbent, especially this far out from Election Day, Mr. Schaffner added.
Ms. Warren drew most of her support from women and young voters, while Mr. Brown is the favorite among Independent voters in Massachusetts.
“Because of the advantage Democrats hold in this state, Republicans must dominate the independent vote to win,” Mr. Schaffner said.
“Brown’s 18-point edge among Independents is impressive and similar to what Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker enjoyed in 2010, but that edge was not large enough to push Baker to victory,” Mr. Schaffner professed.
In order to compete against Mr. Brown in the 2012 election though, Ms. Warren still has to defeat fellow Democratic Senate candidate Thomas Conroy, currently a member of the Massachusetts House of Representatives.
The poll found that 73 percent of likely Democratic primary votesr favor Ms. Warren compared to just 7 percent for Mr. Conroy.
The poll results were released a day after the Massachusetts Republican Party elected software executive Robert Maginn as its’ new chairman Wednesday night. Mr. Maginn was endorsed by Senator Brown, who said he will focus on “creating jobs” and providing “commonsense” if re-elected next year.
“As we look ahead to 2012, it is critical that we stand united as a party. Next year offers us a real opportunity to elect commonsense leaders at the State House and Congress,” Mr. Brown remarked Wednesday night during the announcement of Mr. Maginn as the new state party leader.
“Under the leadership of Chairman Maginn, I am confident our candidates will succeed if we stay focused on creating jobs and getting the economy moving again,” Mr. Brown added.
